"The Leader Of The Band Is Tired" (First Impressions - "Legacy" - Season 11, Episode 11)

So much for hope of a big Alex story for the episode which will air on the sixth anniversary (January 15th) of "Under Pressure".

Since there are only two stories mentioned, I suppose there is some hope for a little something for Alex in what's left.  Or maybe she'll be there to pick up the pieces if Phil's story with his father goes badly (whether she is there or not I have a feeling I may need to stock up on tissues for that one anyway). 

But I'm not optimistic at all about that - in fact I think there's a better chance (for now) that Alex-less Episode #3 may happen instead.

"To A Deluxe Apartment In The Sky" (First Impressions - "The Prescott" - Season 11, Episode 10)

I've mentioned before that the first episodes of Modern Family that start the new calendar year have more often than not been duds.  There is a chance that could change in 2020.

“On The Sixth Day Of Christmas” (“The Last Christmas” Recap)

The bottom line: Alex did not deserve to be threatened by Gloria.

“A Crowded Room, Friends With Tired Eyes”

One last thought about Ariel's post – obviously, hopefully whatever episode she's filming this week is not the only episode we see her in that office.

”The Last Christmas” airs tonight, and it's also the last episode of the twenty-teens.

"Buildings With A Hundred Floors"

Finally, something potentially interesting has popped up (per Ariel's Instagram):

"Knowing Me Knowing You It's The Best I Can Do"

Well, at least Alex isn't the only family member that Luke has no problems throwing under the bus.

Sadly. really, that's all I can say about tonight.  At least Alex will be back next week (she's in some of the promo photos for the Christmas episode).

“I Felt So Left Out”

I almost forgot there's a new episode tonight (“Tree's A Crowd”).  Now, how in the world do you suppose that happened?

Anticipation Level: Very Low.
Emotional Moment Potential: Very Low.
Game Changing Potential: Very Low.

Even if Alex does show up tonight, I don't see much for her to do.  As for that “if”...

Chance Of An Alex-less Episode: Extremely High.  As I said a couple of weeks ago, I'm not as certain as I was two episodes ago that Alex won't be there.  But, I do think it's still more likely than not this time too, and more so than I thought a couple of weeks ago.  In numerical terms, I'd put the chance at about 60-70%.

Are There Any Other Questions?  Well, given how little I have to say about my expectations for tonight, it should come as no surprise I have no other questions either.

Sorry this is so quick, but I'm just not feeling it today.  I doubt that changes much after tonight.