“Looks Like We're In For Nasty Weather”

OK, I pretty much already revealed the other night which ways I was going as far what I expect from tonight's “Pig Moon Rising” when I posted about the promo commercial. But, just to make it official:


Anticipation Level: Very Low.

Emotional Moment Potential: Very Low.

Game Changing Potential: Very Low.

Even if I'm wrong with the next section I don't have high expectations for Alex tonight.

Chance Of An Alex-less Episode: Extremely High. How extreme is extreme? How about I feel there is at least a 75 percent chance we don't see Alex tonight. The only other time I felt that confident about her not appearing was before “Las Vegas”.

That the percentage is that high really boils down to this – the scene(s) where we see all the Dunphys except for Alex raises the mother of all red flags to me. That just screams “Alex isn't going to be here” (especially if it's the first Dunphy scene, like what happened with “Do It Yourself”¹) - it's not a lock but I'd bet against it (and be at least one level of happy² to be totally wrong).

In Which Story Do I Want To See Alex Be A Part? I'm assuming she'd be in Luke's story if she does appear, and that's probably the one I'd want.

Are There Any Other Questions? If I'm right, will I have much to say tonight? I do have one rant in the back of my mind (it might not be what you think though), but you'll just have to wait for tonight to hear it.

If I see anything before then (e.g. a photo or sneak peak) that confirms I'm wrong I'll happily post another mea culpa right away. Otherwise, I'll get back to everyone tonight.
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¹I know there was an early scene with everyone but Alex in “The Long Honeymoon” and she did show up later, but remember we already knew Alex was going to be the big part of that story. That's not the case tonight.

² OK, if it's a one and done I won't exactly be jumping up and down with joy, but still it would be better than nothing.