“Searching For A Perfect Ending That We'll Never Find” (Season 9 Predictions)

There's one quick scheduling update before I get out on that frail limb and predict what happens for/to Alex this season. It looks like “Lake Life” (the season opener) is the episode that was originally going to be called “Catch Of The Day”, since SpoilerTV's episode database now lists the third episode title as “TBA”. So scratch any thought of a two-parter for that trip.

Now, back to the main raison d'être of this thread:

Truth be told, as pessimistic as I've been about Alex's role the past two seasons, I feel like I need to double down on that this season. I thought Season 8 was almost a totally wasted season for Alex (pretty much the only saving grace was a budding romance with Claire's work assistant Ben), and I think Season 9 could be worse.

Let's start with the prediction (the big one which usually ends this list) which fuels this pessimism:

How many Alex-less episodes will we have to endure this season? Just like last year was supposed to be, the biggest question is how much of an effect Ariel going off to college herself in real life will have on her availability on the show. Last year before she announced she was deferring enrolling at UCLA¹, I had the number of Alex-less episodes pegged at 6.

It's highly doubtful Ariel will defer again - logistically it would be problematic, since she'd probably have to re-apply (usually you're allowed to defer admission for up to one year from acceptance, after that you have to start over), and I'm sure part of her new contract with the show gives her more freedom to pursue other career interests away from acting. There is some question out there about how this will affect her availability - one article I saw earlier this summer (about all the kids getting well-deserved raises in their new contracts) says there will probably be no effect, but I'm skeptical of that. I think if Ariel wants to take her college studies seriously (and, if that is her wish, I support her on that, even if it means we see less of her) she will need to focus most of her time on them and less time on the show.

So I think it's likely she will miss more than the 3 episodes she missed both of the last 2 seasons.

Now I'm actually going to go one step lower than last year and say there will be 5 Alex-less episodes this season, BUT: 1) 6 last year was based on the hope that the show would go back to a 24-episode schedule last year, which it didn't and almost certainly won't in the future (locked in on 22), 2) I'm being a bit on the conservative side, and 3) even if it is only 5 or less I think there will an uptick in episodes where she's there, but only briefly (like “Blindsided” last season where she was done after the first 5 minutes).

So, just based off that, there are going to be fewer chances for Alex to have the spotlight in total (and it's not like she's had a lot of the spotlight as it's been the first 8 years).

Which episode will be the first one (which will be her 20th – ugh)? Just like the past few seasons, most of the Alex-less episodes should happen in the middle to latter stages of the season (last year it was episodes 9, 13 and 17). Again, Ariel's availability comes into play here – she won't be starting at UCLA until the end of the month, which gives her a chance to film a few more episodes before needing to focus on her studies.

But I do think there will be at least one early Alex-less episode – I'm going to guess the 4th episode (the one that will probably air on October 18th and will probably be the last new episode before the likely Halloween repeat of last years episode and the following week's music awards shows pre-emption) will be the first (like Season 7's “She Crazy”).

Now that I've covered when and how often we don't see Alex, let's get to what might happen when she is there:


Will Alex and Ben still be a couple by the end of the season? I think it's highly unlikely – as much as Alex expressed she liked being with him (in “Five Minutes”), I just think she will eventually find some fault with him that will lead to their breakup. Either that or after one or two weeks they'll just drop everything (like they did with Jeremy and Michael, two of Alex's former boyfriends). The first episode may or may not hint at where this goes (as I mentioned the other day, Ben is in it).

If not, whom (if anybody) will be Alex's new boyfriend? Well she does have a history of going “off the board” for a rebellious type once in a while (the kid from New Jersey in “Dude Ranch”, and Teddy in “Strangers In The Night”). Since those happened in Seasons 3 and 6, and this is Season 9, she's due to try again. Of course there's always a chance she finally finds someone at CalTech, but I'd bet against it. Just so long as Reuben doesn't rejoin the picture² I'll take almost anything here.

One way or the other, will Sanjay be back in Alex's life this season? As a romantic interest, as much as I'd like to see it, highly unlikely.

As a potential competitor again? I've been waiting since Season 7 for what seems like an inevitable “College Bowl” quiz show battle between them. It wouldn't surprise me if Sanjay comes back and does what I (and Phil and Claire) feared he'd do in “Patriot Games”: get inside Alex's head with thoughts of rekindling their relationship, only to pull the rug out from under her and throw her off her game.  Or maybe the reverse happens (not the most likable of things for Alex to do, but who knows how their last breakup went - if Sanjay broke up with her the second time as well maybe this time she'd want payback)?

Will things go smoothly for Alex at CalTech this season, or will something happen that causes another major meltdown?³ They teased the possibility of Alex getting stressed out again near the end of the season (when she came home to study away from the noise at her dorm in “Alone Time”). I think it's possible that things could turn out worse than before - we've never seen her even come close to failing a class/course (the worst single assignment grade we've ever seen her get is a B-minus) so I think might finally happen this season. I think everything will end up OK if it does, but...

And if she does have a meltdown (hopefully she won't), will she go back to Dr. Clark or possibly see a new therapist? I don't think they'll come back to this now – the opportunity for seeing a follow-up with Dr. Clark passed a few years ago (his specialty is teenagers and Alex is near the end of those years⁴), and I can't see a story developing with a new therapist unless her first reaction to trouble is really bad (i.e., a lot worse than mangling a cake). Of course the latter would probably be the most compelling/tear duct-opening story of the season for Alex if it happens.

Will she still be working that job at the coffee shop? This is probably another story that has long been forgotten, so I'm guessing no.

And if so, will we have any big stories about it? One thing that was badly missing from this part of Alex's life last season was any meaningful interaction with a customer (her being accused of stealing a tablet of one of them doesn't count). If this arc is still on-going we'll probably see one.

Will she take on a mentoring role to the newly-discovered-to-be-super-smart Lily? This is probably the biggest thing on my wishlist for this season. Not that Mitch or Cam are dummies, but somewhere down the line I feel Lily is going to need some guidance about handling more intense academic pressures, and that's a role that practically screams out for Alex to fill. I would be seriously disappointed if this doesn't happen – heck, I'll still be disappointed if this is only visited once.

Any other items on the wishlist? I'd like to see Alex spread her wings a bit and move into her own place – as I theorized a few weeks ago, maybe a vacancy opens up for her (possibly with Haley to share expenses) on the second floor of Mitch and Cam's house? That would definitely open up more opportunities for Alex and Lily to have a mentoring story or two.

Hopefully if I'm going to be correct about any of these predictions, it'll be one or more of the good ones. I suspect more disappointment is on the way though. We'll start finding out in two weeks.
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¹ Please don't get me started again about what happened to the “heavy storylines” which were behind the deferral.

² And please don't get me started again on this either.

³ One interesting thing to look for if there is a story at school which I probably wouldn't be able to figure out – would they film any scenes at UCLA (to fit inside Ariel's schedule) even though Alex is still at CalTech? Or maybe that something that could happen could lead Alex to transfer to UCLA? As noted before UCLA is a lot closer to the Dunphy house than CalTech (I'm not sure about Mitch and Cam's house – if Alex were to move there this season I'll look into that).

⁴ If Dr. Clark does come back after four years, Luke and his seeming lack of direction would be more likely to visit his office.