“It's (Not) The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year”

Tonight's episode is called “Tough Love”. For Alex fans, it might very well end up being called “Tough Luck”:

Anticipation Level: Very Low.
Emotional Moment Potential: Very Low.

This is another one of those episodes where even if I'm wrong about whether or not Alex even appears tonight, any appearance is unlikely to be consequential, unless there is a second hidden story where she gets some tough love of her own.

Game Changing Potential: Low To Medium. In the short term there's probably going to be little happening. In the long term, at least indirectly, as I've noted before, Phil going into business for himself could spell issues for Alex if it doesn't work out.  We could see the ramifications of that as early as next week

Chance Of An Alex-less Episode: High To Very High. A couple of weeks ago I said I'd bet that (at least) one of last week's or this week's episodes would be Alex-less. Well, since it (barely) didn't happen last week I would bet the chance that it happens this week goes up. I'd say we're looking at about a 25 percent chance.

In addition, the promo commercial looks like it is setting us up for an Alex-less episode: it shows a scene at the Dunphy house with only Phil, Claire and Luke, and most of the rest of that story will probably be just Phil and his outdoor adventure. There may not be another scene at the house which would greatly diminish the chance we see Alex.

In Which Story Do I Want To See Alex Be A Part? It would have to be a story that has not been revealed – she's not going outdoors with Phil, and I doubt she's getting involved with Mitch and Cam's family drama. Of course it's more likely than not this question ends up being moot.

Are There Any Other Questions? Why isn't ABC repeating a Christmas episode on the 20th? I have no idea - “Lake Life” repeats on that date for some reason.

As usual, if tonight does turns out to be Alex-less I won't have a true recap, but I will say something.