"I'm Not Going Through The Motions(?)"

Finally, some actual news:  Season 10 starts on September 26th.  So, as of now, nine more weeks until we see Alex again.

And, speaking of nine - just how did my predictions for what would happen last year work out?   About as well as the ones for Seasons 6-8, probably.

Unlike the first three prediction threads, there were actually some footnotes in this one - I left them in as they were:



"Searching For That Perfect Ending That We'll Never Find" (Season 9 Predictions)  

[Original Post Date: September 13, 2017 - good thing it wasn't a Friday or who knows how much worse things would have gone...]

Truth be told, as pessimistic as I've been about Alex's role the past two seasons, I feel like I need to double down on that this season.  I thought Season 8 was almost a totally wasted season for Alex (pretty much the only saving grace was a budding romance with Claire's work assistant Ben), and I think Season 9 could be worse.  [Well, there's one I got right, at least as far as Alex was concerned.  As a whole the season was about at the level of the past few seasons.  Which makes the show's snubbing by the Emmys this summer a little bit perplexing, but not a lot - I guess familiarity did breed enough contempt to make this no better than the ninth best comedy this season apparently.  Too bad I can't blame it on them not using Alex enough.]

Let's start with the prediction (the big one which usually ends this list) which fuels this pessimism:

How many Alex-less episodes will we have to endure this season? Just like last year was supposed to be, the biggest question is how much of an effect Ariel going off to college herself in real life will have on her availability on the show. Last year before she announced she was deferring enrolling at UCLA¹, I had the number of Alex-less episodes pegged at 6.

It's highly doubtful Ariel will defer again - logistically it would be problematic, since she'd probably have to re-apply (usually you're allowed to defer admission for up to one year from acceptance, after that you have to start over), and I'm sure part of her new contract with the show gives her more freedom to pursue other career interests away from acting. There is some question out there about how this will affect her availability - one article I saw earlier this summer (about all the kids getting well-deserved raises in their new contracts) says there will probably be no effect, but I'm skeptical of that. [And I had every right to be.]   I think if Ariel wants to take her college studies seriously (and, if that is her wish, I support her on that, even if it means we see less of her) she will need to focus most of her time on them and less time on the show.  [I guess that's no longer true, at least until the show ends, probably in May.  Hopefully Ariel does go back at least part time sooner rather than later.]

So I think it's likely she will miss more than the 3 episodes she missed both of the last 2 seasons.

Now I'm actually going to go one step lower than last year and say there will be 5 Alex-less episodes this season, BUT: 1) 6 last year was based on the hope that the show would go back to a 24-episode schedule last year, which it didn't and almost certainly won't in the future (locked in on 22), 2) I'm being a bit on the conservative side, and 3) even if it is only 5 or less I think there will an uptick in episodes where she's there, but only briefly (like “Blindsided” last season where she was done after the first 5 minutes).

So, just based off that, there are going to be fewer chances for Alex to have the spotlight in total (and it's not like she's had a lot of the spotlight as it's been the first 8 years).

[Well, I got the number right this time, and, as I mentioned when I recapped this season a few months ago,  that number could have been even worse, for sad reasons.  What I didn't see coming was that Alex wouldn't be the only one to miss that many episodes - all of the kids did (and some missed even more).

And, there were at least four episodes where Alex was barely there, including the season finale.] 

Which episode will be the first one (which will be her 20th – ugh)? Just like the past few seasons, most of the Alex-less episodes should happen in the middle to latter stages of the season (last year it was episodes 9, 13 and 17). Again, Ariel's availability comes into play here – she won't be starting at UCLA until the end of the month, which gives her a chance to film a few more episodes before needing to focus on her studies.

But I do think there will be at least one early Alex-less episode – I'm going to guess the 4th episode (the one that will probably air on October 18th and will probably be the last new episode before the likely Halloween repeat of last years episode and the following week's music awards shows pre-emption) will be the first (like Season 7's “She Crazy”).

[Missed by one - the first Alex-less episode was "Catch Of The Day", the third episode.  Hey, maybe I am getting better at this after all...]

Now that I've covered when and how often we don't see Alex, let's get to what might happen when she is there:


Will Alex and Ben still be a couple by the end of the season? I think it's highly unlikely – as much as Alex expressed she liked being with him (in “Five Minutes”), I just think she will eventually find some fault with him that will lead to their breakup. Either that or after one or two weeks they'll just drop everything (like they did with Jeremy and Michael, two of Alex's former boyfriends). The first episode may or may not hint at where this goes (as I mentioned the other day, Ben is in it).

[There was a hint in the season opener, as Alex was already nitpicking some of Ben's quirk.  It would take four more episodes before the breakup happened.  And yet, it still felt abrupt, since they were still very much in love one week earlier.]

If not, whom (if anybody) will be Alex's new boyfriend? Well she does have a history of going “off the board” for a rebellious type once in a while (the kid from New Jersey in “Dude Ranch”, and Teddy in “Strangers In The Night”). Since those happened in Seasons 3 and 6, and this is Season 9, she's due to try again. Of course there's always a chance she finally finds someone at CalTech, but I'd bet against it. Just so long as Reuben doesn't rejoin the picture² I'll take almost anything here.

[Does "almost anything" include a hunky but somewhat less than bright fireman named Bill?  Because that's what we got - not that Alex didn't try to stay in her academic league by getting googly-eyed for one of her professors.]

One way or the other, will Sanjay be back in Alex's life this season? As a romantic interest, as much as I'd like to see it, highly unlikely.

As a potential competitor again? I've been waiting since Season 7 for what seems like an inevitable “College Bowl” quiz show battle between them. It wouldn't surprise me if Sanjay comes back and does what I (and Phil and Claire) feared he'd do in “Patriot Games”: get inside Alex's head with thoughts of rekindling their relationship, only to pull the rug out from under her and throw her off her game.  Or maybe the reverse happens (not the most likable of things for Alex to do, but who knows how their last breakup went - if Sanjay broke up with her the second time as well maybe this time she'd want payback)?

[Or, Sanjay could continue to be nonexistent.]

Will things go smoothly for Alex at CalTech this season, or will something happen that causes another major meltdown?³ They teased the possibility of Alex getting stressed out again near the end of the season (when she came home to study away from the noise at her dorm in “Alone Time”). I think it's possible that things could turn out worse than before - we've never seen her even come close to failing a class/course (the worst single assignment grade we've ever seen her get is a B-minus) so I think might finally happen this season. I think everything will end up OK if it does, but...

[Academically, things went fine (someone at MIT thought highly enough of Alex to offer her a summer internship, which, sadly, she turned down).  She did have a semi-school related meltdown of sorts when she saw her professor with Haley after she thought they had broken up and she might have a chance to be his rebound girlfriend.  And by "meltdown", she almost literally did, as in almost dying in a dorm room fire from overtoasting bagel bites.] 

And if she does have a meltdown (hopefully she won't), will she go back to Dr. Clark or possibly see a new therapist? I don't think they'll come back to this now – the opportunity for seeing a follow-up with Dr. Clark passed a few years ago (his specialty is teenagers and Alex is near the end of those years⁴), and I can't see a story developing with a new therapist unless her first reaction to trouble is really bad (i.e., a lot worse than mangling a cake) . Of course the latter would probably be the most compelling/tear duct-opening story of the season for Alex if it happens.

[Well, her heart being broken (again) was a compelling story, but the only therapy she sought was in those aforementioned bagel bites.]

Will she still be working that job at the coffee shop? This is probably another story that has long been forgotten, so I'm guessing no.

And if so, will we have any big stories about it? One thing that was badly missing from this part of Alex's life last season was any meaningful interaction with a customer (her being accused of stealing a tablet of one of them doesn't count). If this arc is still on-going we'll probably see one.

[Sigh, another all too brief chapter of Alex's life that is now just a distant memory.]

Will she take on a mentoring role to the newly-discovered-to-be-super-smart Lily? This is probably the biggest thing on my wishlist for this season. Not that Mitch or Cam are dummies, but somewhere down the line I feel Lily is going to need some guidance about handling more intense academic pressures, and that's a role that practically screams out for Alex to fill. I would be seriously disappointed if this doesn't happen – heck, I'll still be disappointed if this is only visited once.

["Seriously" disappointed that this didn't even come close to happening (the only time Alex was even mentioned in a story about Lily was when Mitch and Cam were trying to figure out who should teach Lily about the birds and the bees, and Alex was last on their list and even that didn't happen) doesn't even begin to describe my disappointment level.  In fact, the show didn't even mention that Lily was now considered smart even once last season.

 Of course, the fact that the show all but ignored Lily (even more so than Alex, and that is saying something) didn't help.]

Any other items on the wishlist? I'd like to see Alex spread her wings a bit and move into her own place – as I theorized a few weeks ago, maybe a vacancy opens up for her (possibly with Haley to share expenses) on the second floor of Mitch and Cam's house?  That would definitely open up more opportunities for Alex and Lily to have a mentoring story or two.

[That vacancy didn't happen until the end of the season (and Pameron took Lily with her on the way out) so this was another no go.  Alex is still living on campus and still comes back home at least semi-regularly.]

Hopefully if I'm going to be correct about any of these predictions, it'll be one or more of the good ones. I suspect more disappointment is on the way though. We'll start finding out in two weeks.

[So I did get a few right - too bad it was all the bad ones.  You know what they say - be careful what you wish for, because you'll get the wishes you don't want. 

July's almost over - I guess it's about time to get busy again.]
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¹ Please don't get me started again about what happened to the “heavy storylines” which were behind the deferral.

² And please don't get me started again on this either.  [Thankfully the show forgot about Reuben, too, for now.]

³ One interesting thing to look for if there is a story at school which I probably wouldn't be able to figure out – would they film any scenes at UCLA (to fit inside Ariel's schedule) even though Alex is still at CalTech? Or maybe that something that could happen could lead Alex to transfer to UCLA?  [Nope and nope.]  As noted before UCLA is a lot closer to the Dunphy house than CalTech (I'm not sure about Mitch and Cam's house – if Alex were to move there this season I'll look into that). [Didn't have to do that either.]

⁴ If Dr. Clark does come back after four years, Luke and his seeming lack of direction would be more likely to visit his office.