“You Got To Know When To Hold 'Em, Know When To Fold 'Em”

Time to get the saws ready – I'm about to begin my fifth, and, as of now, likely to be the last, season prediction thread of this blog.

OK, I'm way out on that limb right now, and the view is, as has been the case lately, not that pretty:

Will Alex get her (first, hopefully not last?) degree from CalTech this season?

Four years ago, when the question was whether or not Alex was going to graduate from high school, it was virtually a no-brainer: barring some bizarre happenstance of course she was going to graduate, and she did.  But this season, the question is more than a bit more hazy.

One of the most frustrating things about the past three seasons has been how little we've heard about how Alex's academic life has gone.   It seems as though, not surprisingly, that while the workloads have gotten more difficult in college than in middle or high school, that there is little indication that Alex is having any major struggle with the increased intensity, even if she might not be at the very top of her class as she was before.  So, in theory, she should still be on course to earn her degree (I assume a Bachelor of Science¹ given her courses).

BUT, there is one BIG wild card – the semester she didn't attend two years ago while dealing with mononucleosis.  Again, this is where the frustration of not seeing much of Alex's academic life rears its ugly head.  We have little idea how or if she was able to catch up – she would have had to take extra courses during the regular school year since CalTech doesn't have formal classes during the summer.

And I'm sure how her not taking that MIT internship this past summer affected this – was she going to be in line for degree credits if she had gone and been successful, or was that “just” going to be an extra line on her future resume?

One other possible outside factor – if the show does improbably continue beyond this season, would the powers that be decide there is no rush to get Alex to commencement?  (Of course, that's a question about any of the storylines for anybody this season.)

I feel like I have to be optimistic about something here, so I'm going to say Yes, Alex will obtain her degree, and hopefully it will be at least a decent part of what will probably be the season/series finale (there's little chance it will be the biggest part – either Haley or Jay will probably get that).

Last season the show never did get around to Alex having anything to do with mentoring Lily now that we know Lily is smart, too.  Any chance that changes this season?

Well, if someone other than myself were asking me this question I”d answer ”Seriously? You actually think that could even possibly happen?”   Actually, I'd probably say that to myself as well.

Will Alex and Bill still be together at the end of the season?

I feel pretty safe in saying No to this question – I think eventually Alex will tire of being with someone out of her intellectual league.  And there is one other possibility which I”ll get to later.

So, if not Bill, who?

As painful as this sounds, I'm going to say Nobody.  There's just too much history of Alex ending up disappointed (or totally forgotten) that I don't see changing.

I certainly don't think it will be anybody from her recent past - Sanjay and Ben both seem to have been erased from history, and, even though they never really did have a relationship, I think Professor Fennerman might be joining them after the season opener.

And she has never taken any interest in any other student in school (or maybe it's vice versa?), and I doubt that's going to change.

So it would probably have to be a new person outside of school, and that's another avenue I just do not see Alex taking, or, even if she does, succeeding in finding.

So what about this big death story that's now hanging over this season – how will this end up affecting Alex?

As I said last week, I really don't see the show killing off Alex, or any of the main members of the family².

One reason for this is simple and cynical: this death is supposed to be a big deal – if they were to kill off one of the main characters, do you really think the powers that be would make a big deal out of Alex dying?  Of course not – they haven't given much of a darn about her life – what makes you think they'd do much if they were going to kill her?

They'd probably have someone ask “Where's Alex?”, then have someone say “Oh, she died a couple of weeks ago.”, followed by an “Oh, OK. What's for lunch?”.

(Hey, I did say it would be cynical.)

That does still leave us with the how Alex will react when whomever is chosen does die. The big stumbling block to a seriously emotional Alex reaction here is we've seen Alex be hurt by someone's death already – her grandmother five years ago (“Goodnight Gracie). She may have some feelings about the person^3,4 who does go but I'm guessing her sadness will be less than other family members.

There is one very remote possibility: If Bill dies while on duty as a firefighter, and Alex either still has feelings for him or has just broken up with him.  The main reason why I still doubt this would happen is his death would not be a big deal to anybody else in the family⁵.

And, now, drum roll please – the annual big one:

How many Alex-less episodes will we endure this season?

Last year, with Ariel finally going off to UCLA, I predicted five Alex-less episodes, and that's what we got.   Now, with Ariel no longer going to UCLA (hopefully that's only temporary, as I've said many times), one might think that number would drop this season.

However, it wasn't just Alex who missed five episodes last season – all of the others missed that many and more (6 for Haley, 8 for Lily). And that's a trend that I have every expectation of continuing, if not getting worse.

For now though, I'll stay at Five Alex-less episodes this season.  But keep a close eye on the opener – even though we now know Alex, Haley, Luke and Joe will be there, it's still not certain Manny or Lily will be.   One would think so (as regulars⁶ none of the kids have missed an opener), but since one precedent was broken last season (Lily and Luke missing the finale for the first time) then the chance remains the other shoe could fall next week.   I don't think it will happen, but if it does then all bets are off – if they'd go that far then the sky's the limit I could see someone (even/especially Alex) end up missing half the season if it did.

OK, that's done (for now - maybe I'll think of something else later) – you may begin the mocking (I'll join you in May or June when I wrap up things).
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¹For what should be obvious reasons I'm not using the abbreviation. Alex would never (random B word) (random S word) her way through any academic exercise.

²Jay is the only one of the regulars whom I could remotely see dying. But, barring real life intervention, I doubt they'd do that until the end of the season, if then.

³Dede (Claire and Mitch's mother, Jay's ex-wife and Alex's other grandmother) is the most likely to be the “chosen” one – Alex doesn't have that big a relationship. She is a little closer to Frank (Phil's father and her grandfather), but her connection to Phil's side of the family was much stronger with her grandmother – she'll be hurt some but not nearly as much.

⁴Assuming of course it's not Stella or Larry – they said a “character” was going to die – that does not preclude it being one of the families' pets.

⁵Which is why I don't think Dylan or Andy will die. Andy was working in Phil's old real estate office and was a “manny” (not to be confused with Manny) to Joe but I don't think Joe would remember him that well to make him a prime target.

⁶ “Regular” in this case meaning the first season in which the current actor(s) playing the roles were listed in the opening credits. For Ariel, Sarah, Nolan and Rico obviously that was the first season. Aubrey joined (and was credited) in Season 3, and Jeremy joined in Season 7.