“Because Of You, I Am Afraid”

OK, that's a bit of a stretch because that lyric's song is definitely not a Halloween song, but it does have the word “afraid” in it, so, let's call it “good enough for government work” and move on to more important things.

That is, if ABC lets us – as of now “The Last Halloween” is still on for tonight, but, with the World Series going to Game 7 tonight, there is a chance the network makes a late decision to substitute reruns tonight.  And unless that happens in the next couple of hours, I may not find out about it until I try watching the recording of it when I get home from work tonight.

Now, two years ago (the last time there was a Game 7), ABC made no changes (even though at least one of the other networks did).  But that doesn't mean that things will stay the same this year (two years ago the ratings for Modern Family were two-tenths lower for the corresponding episode than the ones that aired before and after it, and that might factor into their decision).

But, for now, let's go with the premise that we will see tonight's scheduled episode as planned, which includes the season debut of Bill.  But will it also be the last we see of Bill?

Anticipation Level: High.   We know there will be at least one scene with Alex and Bill.  And we have not seen all of it.  There are many directions in which their story could turn by the end of that date, or possibly even after it.  Not all of them are good, but that there is even something about which to speculate puts tonight well ahead of any of the first four episodes in turns of how much I am anticipating getting to watch what happens.

But, as I often have to warn everyone when posting a higher than average anticipation level, this does not mean I'm looking forward to the potential of something bad happening to Alex.  Which brings us to:

Emotional Moment Potential: Very High.  Two years ago, on a sort of Halloween episode (“It's The Great Pumpkin, Phil Dunphy”), Alex had a very painful breakup with Ben.  Since there has already been some tension shown in the clip that was revealed last week, there is every chance we could be looking at a repeat of that tonight.  Perhaps it will be even more painful for Alex, given her relationship with Bill has gone on even longer than her one with Ben.

And, based off last year (DeDe's death), the show isn't afraid (any more?) to add a very serious topic to what has been traditionally a very lighthearted Halloween themed episode.

Or, maybe something outlier could happen – maybe there is another marriage proposal at the end of or after the date?  And there is one possibility that I don't even want to mention (hint: we don't know what job Alex is going to be doing, but we do know what Bill does...)

Game Changing Potential: High.  Whatever happens tonight between Alex and Bill probably won't affect any career decisions she makes (if she hasn't already), so this isn't quite as high.  But it's up there.  (And, if she has made a career decision, obviously that in and of itself could be game changing.)

Are There Any Other Questions? So what do I think is going to happen? I hate to be my usual pessimistic self, but I think there will be a breakup tonight.  But not at the date itself – I predict it will happen near the end of the show.

Will Alex wear a Halloween costume at some point?  Maybe.  Depending on how things are going with Bill, I could see her wearing a very un-Alex-like outfit because of that text conversation (I said "could", BTW - I did not say "want to").  Or maybe a cute one?

As for when I'll be recapping this, I'm not sure – I don't have Thursday off this week but Friday instead. So I may end up waiting until Thursday night or early Friday morning to post a full recap, especially if the episode really is highly emotional. If that's the case, I may post a couple of quick thoughts before that, but don't hold me to that.