“Hook, Line and Sinker You Were Walking With Her Out The Door”

There's more than a small chance history will be made with tonight's “Catch Of The Day”, but it's not good history. Tonight is the first real chance this season for the 20th Alex-less episode.

You can probably guess from here what I think about tonight:

Anticipation Level: Very Low.
Emotional Moment Potential: Very Low.
Game Changing Potential: Very Low.

Honestly, even if Alex is here tonight, there's very little chance anything interesting will happen tonight – I feel like everything's on hold until next week.

So, how much chance do I think Alex will not be on tonight?

Chance Of An Alex-less Episode: Medium to High. Going into tonight's episode exactly 10% of the 190 episodes aired have been Alex-less, which is usually about where that percentage stands (for now – I still think by season's end the percentage will be higher). So, when I say there is a medium chance of an episode being Alex-less, I'm saying that I think there's about a 10% chance of it happening.

I think tonight has a slightly worse chance than that (about 15%), which bumps the level up to “Medium to High”. The big reason is I still feel they're going to get one of the Alex-less episodes out of the way early, and with her definitely being in the next two episodes (especially next week with a potentially big Alex story¹), that puts tonight in the cross-hairs.

Also, as we know tonight's episode is almost all about the adults – I feel like there's a very high chance at least one of the kids will be absent, and I still feel on any given episode where at least one kid isn't there, Alex is the most likely to be one of them.

Are There Any Other Questions?  [crickets chirping...]

For those new to this blog, there won't be a formal recap tonight if Alex doesn't appear. But I'll almost certainly have something to say. And, if I find evidence before the show starts that Alex will actually be there I'll pass it along.
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¹ Actually I think that potential has decreased slightly because of we know about the Halloween episode that follows (that's not necessarily a bad thing, at least as how life goes for Alex is concerned), but I'll elaborate next week.