“Actions Speak Louder Than Words” (Doubts About The Show's Future?)

Just a heads-up: if you don't want to read one of my more pessimistic rants (and that's saying something), don't click on “Read more” (or read past this opening paragraph). Especially since this post has only a minimal amount to do about Alex directly  - it's more about Modern Family in general.


Well, it looks like what I was afraid was going to happen, is going to happen, based off what my satellite on-screen guide says about the January 20th episode:

Now don't get me wrong about “The Day Alex Left For College” - it's a good episode to see again. Just not while all the other shows on ABC that night get new episodes.

I don't think this is good news on three levels (and it gets worse the further out we go):

Short-Term: Presuming that the following week will also be a repeat (as I noted a few days ago they've never aired a new episode on the last Wednesday of January before) and knowing that the show will be preempted the following week, that means a second three-week break in two months, or, in other words, just 2 new episodes in that two month period (and just 6 new episodes in over 3 months after the first five episodes aired consecutively).

That's ridiculous scheduling, and frustrating, especially since this week's "Spread Your Wings" has a story at least partially about Alex. If anything interesting and game-changing happens for/to her, we'll have to wait almost a month for the fallout.

Medium-Term: What is more troubling than that though is what this means for the show for the rest of the season. Because there was also a repeat on Halloween week when the other shows had new episodes, Modern Family will be two episodes behind everyone else after 1/20.

That's significant because there is still no word (as I noted a couple of months ago) whether or not ABC will order the last 2 episodes to bring us to the normal 24. The other shows have had their full runs picked up, but the last I heard the two sides were still negotiating to bring Modern Family up to that total.  That article was from back in mid-November and nothing's been announced since.

The fact that there is going to be a 2 episode gap between Modern Family and the rest of the Wednesday night lineup makes me think that the negotiations have failed and there most likely will only be 22 episodes this season.

The biggest medium-term ramification of this is that's 2 fewer chances to get an Alex-centric story this season – it is entirely possible that “The Storm” might be the last one.

But it's what this 2 episode shortage might mean for the long-term that has me the most concerned...

Long-Term: ...which is there may not even be a long-term. If the negotiations for 2 episodes could not be resolved, what does this say for the hopes of negotiating a full season next year (let alone beyond)?

Now Modern Family is still ABC's top-rated show of its Wednesday night block. But its ratings have fallen considerably over the last couple of seasons (and blame cannot all be pinned on Empire - that show's mid-season hiatus has not resulted in a ratings windfall for Modern Family). Clearly the show is in the second half of its run, with at most maybe 2-3 seasons left after this one.

And given how many characters are on the show (12 regulars, plus several recurring characters like Andy and Pepper), it probably costs 20th Century Fox a lot of money to produce the show (there has already been one bitter dispute between them and the adult actors, and I imagine the contracts must be ending soon), which, in turn means ABC probably pays a lot of money to air it.

The question is, if in fact the two sides are now at odds with each other, would ABC just pull the plug and find a cheaper option (e.g. an unproven pilot with a smaller cast), in spite of the high ratings?

And maybe the producers know there could be trouble – hence Jay announcing his retirement from the closet business in “White Christmas”, giving them an out if they're told this will now be the final season?

I wish I knew what the chances are that this worst-case scenario happens (I don't want things to end this season – let the show end in a year or two [or even better 3 to let us see Alex graduate from college] on its own terms), but I'm far, far from being an expert and can only speculate. It (hopefully) may not happen (and I've certainly been wrong before), but if it did I would not be surprised.

Again, sorry for the pessimism - hopefully my next post (likely the pre-show post on Wednesday) will be a little brighter.