“And Who's To Say Where We'll Be Tomorrow”

[CAUTION: This post contains high amounts of potentially depressing but pure speculation, and I have absolutely ZERO official information as to what's going to happen next season. Please take all of this with as many grains of salt as you feel is necessary.]

There are times in life where even the best case scenario isn't particularly good. Sadly, the question about what happens to Modern Family and, in particular, Alex (and Ariel Winter, her real life alter-ego) after this season is one of them. I've been trying to shy away from this question (OK, questions) for most of this season (with only vague mentions), but now it's time to put bits and bytes to computer servers and get out on that fragile limb.

Obviously the biggest question is whether or not there will even be a ninth season for Modern Family this coming fall, since without a show there is no chance we'll see Alex next season (barring an completely unlikely spin-off show¹). Unfortunately, with each passing day, I become less and less optimistic about that happening.

While the show continues to get some of the highest ratings for ABC, they have slipped quite a lot from their highest levels in the earlier seasons, and they are a lot closer to those of the rest of their Wednesday lineup. So, it would be easier now than before to plug in a replacement series that's less expensive that could get ratings within at least haling distance of it (and comparable to the rest).

Nevertheless, from a pure ratings standpoint the show would still be a relatively easy renewal. But there is a big issue that potentially dwarfs that.

The contracts for the cast are all finished as of the end of this season, and the negotiations for new ones are still ongoing. The biggest difficulty is the simplest: money. With 12 regular characters (for now – more on that in a moment) the show is already a very expensive one to produce. Now add to this that it is expected that most/all of the cast will want raises on top of their weekly salaries (and possibly even a larger cut of royalties), at a time when the show is clearly in its endgame, and one can probably see that this will be a difficult endeavor.  The last time this came up a few years ago the cast held out and delayed filming for a while - if that happens with the show's much less certain future this time...

Not surprisingly, very little has been said in public about the progress (or lack thereof), but my instinct (which, admittedly, has been quite wrong before) thinks the longer we don't hear of an agreement, the more likely it is that one will not happen and that would be the end. While I may be in the minority in thinking this (most experts think things will be worked out), I think the chance of everything being OK are only about 50/50, and dropping by the day.

But even if everything does work out and Season 9 happens, there would still be questions about Alex.

Let's get to the second question – will Ariel Winter stay with the show?

As we all remember, Ariel was supposed to start at UCLA last fall, but deferred for a year to honor her commitments to the show (she said the show runners wanted her to wait because they had some heavy storylines for Alex this coming season – whether or not that actually happened or not will be a BIG rant for the season wrapup almost no matter what happens in the final three episodes). She did drop hints a few weeks ago on social media about going to UCLA this fall, so that is certainly an option still very much in play.

And who knows what happens with her soon-to-be-released movie Dog Years? If it becomes a hit and Ariel suddenly vaults into “A-List Actress” discussions (I would love for that to happen, and I still think it will happen someday if she stays in acting even if Dog Years fizzles) that would give her another immediate option for her life.

Either way she faces a difficult decision – stay the course and forego college² and other aspirations for a while longer, or move on with her life?

As much as I'd love to see her stay for another season or more (the more likely and best-case albeit far from perfect scenario), I'm not sure that would be her best option (and I want Ariel to do what's best for herself, not for others including her fans). Especially if nothing big happens to Alex in the final three weeks, we would probably be looking at another dreary season of Alex's and Ariel's lives treading water (OK, maybe not so dreary for Ariel, but I really think down the road she may wish she could have had a do-over).

Honestly, it may be time for Ariel to spread her own wings a little wider.

(Alternatively, she could try to do both, with a more limited but still still fairly regular role on the show. But since she couldn't do that this season, I think the chances she does so next season are very slim.)

Of course, there's also the possibility that whether or not Ariel stays ends up not being her own decision – the show and/or ABC may decide that the only way they can afford to keep going is to drop a character or two, probably one or more of the kids. If that's on the table then Ariel would probably be the most likely to be cut adrift – remember the (denied) rumors last summer that she wasn't going to be there this season? Those rumors may have been false, but you know what they say about smoke and fire...

Hopefully it wouldn't come to that, and that any departure would be at least a mutual one.

So, if Ariel does leave (on her own terms or otherwise), the third question is what will the show do with Alex? Basically there are two options: 1) they write Alex off the show completely (hopefully by having her transfer to a college out of town, or eloping with Ben, but there are other less altruistic possibilities like having her die) or 2) they bring in a new actress to play Alex.

Of these two scenarios, the first one is the more likely - if they don't kill her that would leave open a chance for her to appear in a special episode (e.g. Christmas). But don't count out the second scenario – not only has recasting characters been done by other shows in the past, Modern Family has already done it twice with Lily and Joe (albeit they were much younger and had each only been on the show for a couple of years at the time of those switches).

The one big problem with the second scenario (besides trying to fill Ariel's shoes talent-wise)? It probably wouldn't change the probability that Alex's life and role don't change much this upcoming season.

Which brings us to the final question (and the least important): what becomes of this blog?

Obviously if the show ends, so does the blog.

And if Ariel stays on the show, of course I will continue the blog.

If Ariel leaves and Alex gets written off the show, I will probably mostly let the blog go dormant, but if there is a special return episode or two I may choose to come back for a post or two.

Finally, if Ariel leaves the show but they bring in someone new to play Alex I will keep the blog going for at least a little while. I doubt if they replaced Ariel the new actress could play Alex nearly as well, but because I'm so much of a fan of Alex as a character I'm willing to give a new person a shot.

So, there it is. We should find out how all this plays out in the next couple of weeks, probably before the season ends.  I'm sorry I'm not being optimistic about this, but you shouldn't be surprised by that either.
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¹That ship sailed a couple of years ago – the best time to spin Alex off into her own show was right after she graduated high school in Season 6, when they could have sent her away from So. Cal to a college in another part of the country (MIT?) and let her life have its own focus away from the family. (Also, I was hoping any such spin-off would be more dramatic than Modern Family.)

² Ariel would probably have to reapply to UCLA or another school – I believe one can still only defer matriculation for one year after which the original acceptance is null and void.